S2 Outlook - February 10th, 2012

Today we watch with interest Tropical Cyclone Jasmine as it moves SE towards the North Island of NZ. Forecast models are looking like she will stay offshore and track SE initially and then possibly pushing more East in direction as it is shunted by a large high pressure in the Tasman. Our unseasonably cold water around NE coasts could stop this TC winding up as it gets closer.

West and South coasts will have some leftover swell on offer with WSW groundswell easing for the west and ESE groundswell for SE coasts.

Northland

Northland East Coast - This weekend we will have surf on offer with NE swell in the 1-2ft range on Saturday (hopefully more size with some 2-3ft sets) and light winds replaced by a rising southerly which will carry through into Sunday. More swell size on for Sunday hopefully we see some building NE swell (9secs) in the 2ft range with some 3ft sets.

Northland West - We're looking at lingering WSW swell (12secs) in the 2-3ft+ range for the weekend, but winds are not looking the best with a rising southerly that could be fresh through til Sunday avo. So looking messy and cross to onshore throughout the weekend. Keep an eye on the other coast Sunday.

Auckland West Coast

A different story for Auckland WC breaks, we'll have swell leftover in the 2-3ft range, maybe bigger 3-4ft+ on the incoming to high tides, and light winds forecast for Saturday offering fun waves in the morning before a sea breeze hits the avo. Sunday is looking pretty nice with similar swell size in the 2-3ft range (again more on the incoming to high) and we may see a Northeast offshore breeze for the day so could be some nice waves on offer if that swell holds.

Coromandel and BOP

Light winds on for the weekend both days, and we should start to see NE swell building on Saturday in the 1-2ft range and hopefully bigger later in the day with some 3ft sets showing (NE 11secs). Sunday is looking like more size again with more consistent 2-3ft NE 11secs, light winds and sea breezes again.

Gisborne

Waves on for the weekend with SE swell remaining in the 2-3ft range throughout, but winds will be the problem with a rising southerly forecast for Saturday that could freshen. Sunday again 2-3ft of SE swell and southerly winds easing later in the day.

Taranaki

Generally small swell on for the weekend. 1-3ft on HWY spots bigger on super exposed SW magnets (2-3ft+) and winds will be offshore southeast on Saturday and Sunday with similar swell size on offer. Best bet is those high tides for more size.

Wellington and Wairarapa

A poor surf weekend lining up for Wellington, 1ft at Lyall Bay maybe a little bigger, but onshore southerly winds are set for the weekend, so will messy and small wind swell at best. Winds are expected to ease off Monday.

Wairarapa coast will have swell with ESE groundswell in the 3ft range both days, southerly winds will be blowing Saturday before dropping off to light winds and sea breezes Sunday. The swell will still be raw and messy.

Kaikoura and Christchurch

City beaches looking small in the 1-2ft range (leftover East swell) and clean on Saturday with a southerly forecast, winds and swell will ease back for Sunday.

Kaikoura coast will have ESE swell leftover in the 2-3ft+ range but a southerly wind will make for messy conditions Saturday. Light winds on for Sunday.

Dunedin

We're looking at SE swell on for Saturday and Sunday again, 3-4ft maybe bigger (Saturday) but looking pretty raw with a southwester set to blow Saturday then go more southerly for Sunday.